Fluker; he says he fears for daughter’s safety, Orioles reset: Shortened 2020 season can’t be considered more than a qualified success, Man carjacked at Towson Place shopping center: Towson and Cockeysville area crime, ‘Monday Night Football’ analyst Brian Griese on Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, AFC pecking order and more, Authentic listed as 9-5 Preakness favorite; Kentucky Derby champ will start from No. But while I have great affection for the Midwest, I see no just reason for an individual voter in California having far less power than an individual voter in, say, Wisconsin or Michigan. Keep supporting great journalism by turning off your ad blocker. Here’s a better idea for Democrats. As the campaign careens towards its denouement, the campaigns themselves will tell us what they think about the competition in various places by where they deploy the candidate and surrogates and spend donor money. Donald Trump Jr. on father's taxes: 'People don't understand what goes into a business'. In Michigan, Mr. Biden’s average lead is 4.2 percentage points, but a survey conducted in mid-August had Mr. Trump leading by 2 points. Silver’s main critique was fair enough: “There’s just not that much we can say about the Electoral College right now beyond a couple of fairly loose priors (e.g. Utilities can send shutoff notices to Maryland homes starting this week. To return to the White House, Mr. Trump needs to win in Pennsylvania (again) and win in either Michigan or North Carolina, and win in Wisconsin or Minnesota. With the Electoral College, all presidential campaigning is focused on voters in a few swing states because the candidates know a vote in those states counts much more than a vote in the other states. Clinton led Trump by about 2.9 million popular votes, 2.1 percent. At some point, the majority will rise up. The Electoral College has 538 members, with the number allocated to each state based on how many representatives it has in the House plus its two senators. The assumptions underlying a controversy are often more important than the controversy itself. Click For more on these, check out our brief review of the electoral college forecasts.. Make Your Own Electoral Forecast. The logic behind a system that elects U.S. presidents who do not win the popular vote is flawed. North Carolina is very close, with the candidates trading the lead for much of the last three months, and the state is also host to very tight gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. Their strained claim is that a president is somehow more “representative” of the country if he wins by eking out tiny margins in several Midwestern states. 9 post, “Scrapping the electoral college is bad idea,”, Trump’s taxes: How about changing the law, Congress? The Electoral College is a factor only if the vote is decided by about two points or less. Still, Cohn’s calculations were revelatory. Joe Biden's false claim about drunken driver draws renewed scrutiny Or purchase a subscription for unlimited access to real news you can count on. People outside these groups and places are supposed to sit back and accept their relative disenfranchisement. What will you do when the mob shows up at your front door? And there is also nothing neutral or random about how our system works. Naval Academy, UMBC climb U.S. News & World Report rankings in 2021. In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden’s average lead is 6.7 percentage points. In final days, campaigns will tell us what they think of competition by where they spend time and money, Forget Dems griping, if you have the votes Mitch McConnell, call the vote for Supreme Court nominee, New Senate report reveals shocking corruption involving Hunter Biden, America’s November decision: Socialism or individualism. There is no reason they should, and at some point, they won’t. Copyright © 2020 The Washington Times, LLC. At some point, the majority will rise up. Baltimore police officers largely refused to respond to survey on their views of misconduct, discipline, GTTF commission says, Initial phase of Westminster shopping plaza construction nearing completion, with most tenants picked, Hopkins, U.S. In all events, Mr. Biden needs to hold onto Minnesota. Take the case of our blithe acceptance of the electoral college. Seth Moulton: Abolish the filibuster and the electoral college, Jennifer Rubin: Democrats may come to love the electoral college again, Paul Waldman: The electoral college is an abomination, and Democrats should keep talking about it, Gary Abernathy: Hey, liberals, you’re doing yourselves no favor by clamoring for an end to the electoral college. ADVERTISEMENT. The Founding Fathers would probably agree. For a country that has long claimed to model democracy to the world, this is both wrong and weird. And the system’s bias toward white voters only encourages Trump’s habit of dividing the country along racial lines. Our brewing troubles were underscored last month by the kerfuffle that Nate Cohn, the New York Times’ political numbers guru, set off with a story that ran under the headline “Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign.”, [George F. Will: The electoral college is here to stay], For election junkies, Cohn’s analysis ignited quite a stir, especially since it set off a “Nate vs. Nate” Twitter skirmish between Cohn and Nate Silver, another brand-name data maven. If Cohn’s worst-case-for-democracy scenario materializes, 2020 could be that year. Jonah Goldberg’s arguments for not scrapping the Electoral College seem to argue for scrapping it (“Scrapping the electoral college is bad idea,” Sept. 18). or democratic about choosing our president through a system that makes it ever more likely that the candidate who garners fewer votes will nonetheless assume power. Mr. Biden needs either to flip Pennsylvania and one among Michigan, North Carolina, or Wisconsin, or, in the event he loses Pennsylvania, he needs to win Michigan and North Carolina. As Cohn wrote, “the major Democratic opportunity — to mobilize nonwhite and young voters on the periphery of politics — would disproportionately help Democrats in diverse, often noncompetitive states.” On the other hand, the GOP’s opportunity is “to mobilize less educated white voters, particularly those who voted in 2016 but sat out 2018.” This “would disproportionately help them in white, working-class areas overrepresented in the Northern battleground states.”, Think about it: The Democratic nominee against Trump could beat him by far more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 — and still lose. As a short-term strategic matter, Cohn is right to stress the importance to the 2020 result of states that were closely divided in 2016. JavaScript is required for full functionality on this website, but scripting is currently disabled. Eliminating the Electoral College allows each person’s vote to count equally — an idea Mr. Goldberg believes is only held by a “pure-democracy fetishist” — and ensures the president speaks for the majority of Americans. Despite President Trump’s steady and durable deficit in nationwide surveys, a closer look at the Electoral College map indicates that his pathways to victory remain open. (Jahi Chikwendiu/The Washington Post). Our founders admitted that the, college system they created in the original Constitution was defective by altering it with the 12th Amendment in 1804, . That pattern of victories is unlikely. He was most recently a deputy assistant to the president and deputy director of the Office of Legislative Affairs at the White House. There are other scenarios involving New Hampshire and Nevada, but their probability is small and getting smaller. The Trump team will spend time in Pennsylvania, but also in North Carolina, Wisconsin and Minnesota. and View Comments, Terms of Use / Privacy Policy / Manage Newsletters. (Yes, fate has made “Nate” a name of choice for people in this line of work.) No, it only requires an amendment, which has occurred 27 times. Sounds like the current campaign to me. Let’s also assume that Mr. Trump will win Florida, which has been drifting back into his column for a few months. In Pennsylvania, his average lead in the “poll of polls” at Real Clear Politics is 4.3 percentage points, although Mr. Trump has tied him in a recent survey. Americans who go to the polls on Election Day don't actually select the President directly. Election Day is just a little more than six weeks from now, so these final decisions about where to spend time and money will decide the outcome. What to know about haunted houses, trick-or-treating and more. Yet isn’t the government instead answering to 46.1% as in the 2016 election and possibly as low as 25% plus one voter in the future even worse? How will coronavirus change Halloween in Maryland? Mueller assistant pushed Trump-yacht meeting theory inside special counsel's office In Minnesota, Mr. Biden’s average lead has bounced around a bit, but is in the high single digits. Jonah Goldberg’s arguments for not scrapping the Electoral College seem to argue for scrapping it (“Scrapping the electoral college is bad idea,” Sept. 18). But help is available. Read more from E.J. His latest book is “Code Red: How Progressives and Moderates Can Unite to Save Our Country.”. So in addition to being undemocratic, the electoral college encourages a particularly odious politician with no interest in uniting the country to do all he can to promote minority rule. Joshua Spivak: The electoral college is a failure. Despite President Trump's steady and durable deficit in nationwide surveys, a closer look at the Electoral College map indicates that his pathways to victory remain open. Long election nights are what make junkies go wild and partisans go crazy. We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites. This means that the country could render a negative verdict on Trump’s time in office by swinging away from him in a big way — and he would still be president for four more years. Election, vaccine uncertainty slow economic recovery in U.S. China’s military might, aggressive policies spur talks of creating ‘Asian NATO’, How To: Fix Dark Spots And Uneven Skin Tones, Mueller assistant pushed Trump-yacht meeting theory inside special counsel's office, Joe Biden's false claim about drunken driver draws renewed scrutiny, Donald Trump Jr. on father's taxes: 'People don't understand what goes into a business', Click Similarly, let’s assume that Mr. Biden will win all the states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, as well as one state — Arizona — won by Mr. Trump in 2016 but which has been moving steadily away from him for the last 60 days and in which the ticket is being damaged by Sen. Martha McSally’s listless effort against Mark Kelly. The Democrats still have a registration advantage of 750,000 in the commonwealth. David Von Drehle: Abolish the electoral college? (The District of Columbia gets three, despite the fact that the home to Congress has no vote in Congress.) The electoral college is in trouble An early-voting station at St. Catherine Laboure Catholic Church on Nov. 1, 2018, in Silver Spring. He claims implementing it would require a “wholesale revision of the Constitution." | READER COMMENTARY, Ellicott City man found guilty in federal court of drug trafficking, weapons charges, Family of slain Baltimore woman, child say charges against alleged killer were long time coming; dispute her characterization as a drug dealer. here for reprint permission. The Biden team is likely to focus on Pennsylvania, probably to the exclusion of other states. | READER COMMENTARY, UM’s students should have weekly coronavirus testing | READER COMMENTARY, The rush for Ginsburg replacement: Is there no decency left? The Electoral College is a body of electors established by the United States Constitution, which forms every four years for the sole purpose of electing the president and vice president of the United States.The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, and an absolute majority of at least 270 electoral votes is required to win the election. Yesterday, the electoral college met and made it official—Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States, though we won’t formally know that until January 6, when Vice President Joe Biden, in his role as the departing President of the Senate, reads out the results. If Cohn’s worst-case-for-democracy scenario materializes, 2020 could be that year. This will lead to a meltdown. Please enable JavaScript and reload this page. At this point in the campaign, there are only a handful of states that are truly up for grabs. - There is nothing normal or democratic about choosing our president through a system that makes it ever more likely that the candidate who garners fewer votes will nonetheless assume power. He is a professor at Georgetown University, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a frequent commentator for NPR and MSNBC. here for reprint permission. Pennsylvania is the key to the election. Police arrest partner of Ravens guard D.J. (Clay Bennett, Chattanooga Times Free Press), Ravens vs. Chiefs primer: An unwanted narrative for Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes; what to watch Monday, Police arrest more than 100 people in Ocean City during unauthorized ‘H2oi’ car rally, Ocean City officials defend large-scale police response to ‘H20i’ car rally: ‘Ugly at times ... but the plan worked’, Ravens place CB Tavon Young on injured reserve; three defensive backs called up for game vs. Chiefs, How to watch Ravens vs. Chiefs: Week 3 game time, TV, odds and what to read. For a country that has long claimed to model democracy to the world, this is both wrong and weird. [it’s] more likely to help than hurt Trump).”. That's been the case in two of the last five contests, but the odds are for a more decisive outcome. Click to Read More Defenders of such a departure from one-person, one-vote say that if Democrats run up big leads in a few states and regions — especially California but also, say, New York, Illinois and New England — that shouldn’t count.